Max Willians held up a copy of the first-ever vinyl he bought with his own money; it was Childish Gambino’s “Awaken, My Love!” Willians had started collecting vinyl since his sophomore year of high school. He had just gotten a record player for Christmas and became enchanted with the idea of listening to music using a turntable and a vinyl. He then started going to his local Best Buy, searching for more records to add to his collection. However, vinyl enthusiasts, such as Willians, have been unable to find as many records to purchase in the last year. Like other consumer goods in short stock- from cars to computer chips- the pandemic has disrupted vinyl’s commercial supply chains.
Where Is My Vinyl?
According to the Recording Industry Association of America (RIAA), in just 2020 alone, vinyl sales shot up 28.7% , beating CD sales for the first time since the 1980s. Like other industries that have suffered delays, shortages, and production issues due to factory closures because of the COVID-19 pandemic, vinyl is no exception. Yet vinyl now faces a unique predicament in an already fragile supply chain that is constrained by an uncommon demand: celebrity artists want to jump on a reemerging format. “I think there’s definitely a push to go back towards vinyl,” said Willians, which is also contributing to supply chain pressures. “I mean, Adele pressed 500,000 copies of her album of vinyl, which has only increased the delay on pressing plants.”
Pedro Suplicy, a vinyl collector, living in Washington D.C., believes that prominent artists want a piece of the vinyl pie because streaming services like Spotify are not generating as much revenue via royalties compared to “the old times where they used to sell millions and millions of records.” Suplicy also expresses concern that smaller artists and bands might die out if big artists take over their only source of revenue, acknowledging that the disadvantages of streaming revenue are even worse for smaller artists
Similarly, the perspective of those in the music business, such as NYU Steinhardt professor, Larry Miller, is that it is just the harsh realities of businesses are at play. “There’s this crowding-out effect that happens in economics, especially when we’re talking about a product for which there is limited capacity and even shrinking capacity,” said Professor Miller. He adds that separate incidents, such as one of the few lacquer plants specialized in vinyl lost to a fire in California, also harmed the global supply chain.
Rewind To the Resurgence
Vinyl records had their sales peak in the 1970s at about 530 million units per year, which at the time accounted for about 66% of the total revenues from the music industry. The format almost faced extinction in the 1990s due to the advent of CDs, with vinyl revenue falling to less than 10 million units per year, about 0.1% of the industry’s total revenue. However, starting in the mid-2000’s vinyl began to see a revitalization among millennials who subscribed to the “hipster” subculture.
Bill Poteet, the general manager of Vinyl Alliance, an organization dedicated to promoting the vinyl industry in the digital age, notes that “music goes through cycles,” with streaming now being the norm. He makes an analogy that streaming for music is like “fast food” compared to vinyl being akin to “fine dining.” Poteet argues that the vinyl format also incentives people to listen together as a social experience, while the personalization and algorithms behind most streaming services can make it a more solitary medium.
Alnasr points out that the implementation of technology into our music listening experience is also bringing people back to physical formats such as vinyl. “People lost touch with reality,” he says. “There is no reality of listening to a download, you have to touch the actual physical item.” Professor Miller seems to agree, believing that “loving vinyl is a way to express fandom. To love the graphics, the packaging, and most of all, love the tactile feeling of dropping the needle on the turntable and hearing something analog.”
Suplicy considers that the impact of the coronavirus pandemic on restaurants, bars, concerts, parties, all of which use music as an essential part of those experiences, drew more people into vinyl to substitute those lost experiences. “You have more money because you’re not going outside, and you’re trying to find something new to do in your home.” Other vinyl enthusiasts such as Willians also argues that the increase in disposable income via stimulus checks and unemployment insurance gave those who had considered getting into vinyl but were dissuaded by how expensive it could be, an opportunity to start buying.
Just A Phase?
It’s hard to say what lies in store for the future of vinyl. On one hand, the industry is experiencing a comeback that has never been seen before in the history of music and technology. On the other hand, it has always been an industry with a weak supply chain even before the pandemic and still struggling to recover. Overproducing, shutting out smaller artists and the reopening of concerts, bars, and public events may disincentivize those who were considering taking up the vinyl hobby.
Dr. Alan Williams, a Professor of Music at UMass Lowell, believes that infighting over the Adele release is a symptom of the “shopworn indie vs. mainstream debate” occurring among those in the hobby. He describes the conflict stemming from whether vinyl is for “a specific demographic with a very particular aesthetic criteria that Adele does not appear to meet.” A clash between those who want the hobby to be a niche, or small club, versus those who want to see it become a viable alternative to streaming. To those on the fence, having the community be in a perpetual state of gatekeeping can push them away from ever experimenting with the format, believing that it only appeals to smug hipsters.
As to whether supply chain issues could also sabotage the revival, arguments can be made for either outlook. Miller is concerned that “today’s fans who may just be coming to vinyl for the first time, may move on next year or the year after that if they are unable to find the things that they want, when and where they want them.” Meanwhile, contrary to Professor Miller, Poteet stresses that even if the current supply chain issues persist, “we have a very robust pressing community here in the United States, they’ve all invested in expansion.” Poteet also has hope that future technology will help modernize the pressing machines, “I think we’ll see capacity kind of mature and stabilize to the point where I don’t think the wait will be quite as long in the future.”
It can be hard to say whether vinyl is here to stay or if the recent trends are merely an ongoing blip; even experts disagree. It is one more of the unknowns of the pandemic’s impact on the world.
Source List
Max Willians, Miami University Student, Instagram: maxwellmeanswell
Pedro Suplicy, Vinyl Collector, pedrofsuplicy@hotmail.com, (202) 805-9597
Jamal Alnasr, Village Revival Records: villagerevivalrecordsnyc@gmail.com, (646) 692-9580
Larry Miller, NYU Steinhardt: lsm248@nyu.edu (917) 933-2266
Bill Poteet, Vinyl Alliance: Bill.Poteet@vinylalliance.org (757) 763-9427
Alan Williams, University of Massachusetts Lowell: Alan_Williams@uml.edu (978) 934-3868
